英国威廉希尔公司数经中心 Seminar32 郭士祺助理教授（上海交通大学）

Rural-urban Migration and Agricultural Fires

摘要：

This paper examines the impact of rural-urban migration on agricultural fires, a notable source of air pollution in China. Using county-level data from the 2010 Population Census and satellite imagery of agricultural fires, we demonstrate that a one-percentage-point increase in the rural labor emigration rate in 2010 leads to a 0.7% increase in detected agricultural fires from 2011 to 2017. This rise is attributed to the burning of crop straw residues as a labor-saving method for field clearance when agricultural labor becomes scarce. Our findings corroborate this mechanism, revealing that the effect is predominantly driven by rural emigrants, is weaker for those working nearby, and is more pronounced in areas with an aging agricultural workforce, higher grain production, and extensive use of agricultural machinery. To tackle potential endogeneity concerns, we employ an instrumental variable approach, leveraging the exogenous shift in trade policy between China and the U.S. as a pull factor for rural emigration. Furthermore, we discover that land titling reforms significantly mitigate agricultural fires associated with decreased rural labor, proving to be more effective than administrative bans on burning. Overall, our study reveals the intricate interplay between migration and pollution in developing countries and highlights the unintended negative externalities of rural-urban migration.

报告时间：2024年3月28日，下午2:00        

线下地点：威廉希尔6-210会议室

主办单位：william hill中文网、英国威廉希尔公司数量经济研究中心

嘉宾简介：

郭士祺，上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院助理教授，满族，群众。2021年博士毕业于日内瓦国际关系及发展高等研究院，曾在哈佛大学、联合国大学世界发展经济学研究所访问。主要研究领域为发展经济学、应用微观经济学，有多篇文章被国内外权威期刊发表，包括The Economic Journal，Journal of Development Economics，Games and Economic Behavior, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Journal of Comparative Economics,《经济研究》。主持国家自然科学基金青年项目，上海市浦江人才计划。